What Next For Harper?

By all indications, Stephen Harper will be defeated on December 8th, unless he takes the extraordinary step of proroguing Parliament to protect himself, though the Governor-General would have the option to refuse the request and fire him, which would set off some interesting constitutional issues. But assuming that the Prime Minister is defeated next week, one has to wonder what his future is, as well as that of his party.

Many close to the negotiations between the three opposition parties indicate that any coalition agreement will require safeguards to ensure that it holds together for a minimum of a year, and possibly two. This means that a Conservative caucus that is already divided over Mr. Harper's scorched-earth tactics will be sitting on the other side of the aisle, on the outside of Government, looking in. And all those Conservative frontbenchers who relied on Stephen Harper for all their big offices, staff, chauffers, and other parliamentary perks, will suddenly be free. All of them will be asking how it was that they were so unceremoniously turfed out. Many will direct their ire at their boss, whose massive miscalculation was the straw that broke the opposition's back, but not the way he had hoped.

Can Stephen Harper last two years on the opposition benches without being removed? It seems unlikely. And let's face it: Canadians have never truly loved, or even liked Mr. Harper. They have supported him because they had nobody else to vote for. The fear and uncertainty card, played so deftly by the Tories thus far, will be buried so deep in the deck that it won't be playable anymore. All of a sudden, Conservative fortunes will wane across the country, as people finally take note of the fact that Liberals are indeed capable of running the country perfectly well. A couple years in Government will swell the coffers of the Liberals, finally narrowing the Conservative Party's massive cash advantage. All this will be bad news for the soon to be former Prime Minister, who will likely be pushed aside, as Conservatives realize that their Leader's venom-filled policy of spending more energy on trying to destroy the opposition than actually governing, cost them everything.

But who will lead them? The Conservative Party is much like Iraq. It is a fake entity, divided into three major factions that have virtually nothing in common. Scott Reid characterized those factions as "Reform Party leftovers, Harris refugees and Red Tory desperates." Not altogether attractive, but reasonably accurate. Just like Iraq, it takes a despot to hold together such disparate factions. Just like what happened in Iraq, Stephen Harper's style of leadership has ensured that there is no heir apparent to the leadership, and nobody in that party is strong enough to hold the Conservative coalition together. Without Mr. Harper, it will be all but impossible to hold those factions together. The Reform element will likely take over the party, splitting the old Harris elements, and forcing Red Tories out altogether. Most of those forced out will likely join the Liberals.

Let's be clear: there is nothing wrong with advocating for the disintegration of the Conservative Party. It may not be pretty, but make no mistake: Stephen Harper's goal was never just to beat us; it is and has always been to destroy us. There's no room to respond with half measures. We must respond in kind, and the collateral damage may well be Mr. Harper's party. If that happens, so be it. There's no reason for that to give us any pause, when our adversaries wouldn't hesitate if the roles were reversed.